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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

FATHER'S DAY BEST BETS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles( -1.5)

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers(-1.5)

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners(-1.5)

MLB Best Bet Season Record: 55-54

Colin Rea
MLB.com


FATHER'S DAY BEST BETS. CALL YOUR DAD TELL EM YOU LOVE HIM



Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles(-1.5)

DK +164

FD +168


Zach Wheeler is awesome. Undoubtedly. The issue is that Corbin Burnes is just as awesome. Frankly, instead off diving super deep into pitchers I've bet on extensively in the past, anytime the Orioles are above +130 they're best bet worthy. It's a rare thing.


In all seriousness if there's a nit to pick it's that both pitchers are slightly susceptible to the longball. Wheeler has a FIP of 2.89 and Burnes a FIP of 3.21. Still great, but shows a slight weakness compared to the rest of their games. Burnes is exceptional at forcing ground balls, which he does 50.4% of the time. Wheeler does it well, inducing them at 41.9% clip, but there in lies where the matchup could swing. Wheeler has faced mostly cupcakes through no fault of his own. The National league is very weak in comparison to the American League. We're seeing that play out as Philly is struggling on their AL East swing. If there's every a team that's going to convert what is normally a long fly ball out into a home run, it's the one that does it every 7 fly balls in Baltimore.



Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers(-1.5)

DK +150

FD +150


I love these odds for the Brewers. Colin Rea is pitching some great ball over his past two starts, and Frankie Montas has been the definition of a good start vs bad offense pitcher. I think we can see the Brewers offense explode today as they've been held down by the Reds great pitchers in Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott. William Contreras is slumping in June but all that's done is allow Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourino, and Joey Ortiz to pick it up. The Brewers are a relentless offense and I see them taking advantage of an inconsistent pitcher.



Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners(-1.5)

DK +154

FD +158


I don't trust Dane Dunning. Look at him.


Under the hood is bad, and then the ERA, FIP, and WHIP are 4.80, 5.26, and 1.23 respectively. With Seattle's offense creeping back into the top half of offense in the league. They've inched back into the top 20 of fWAR on the season and rank 11th in the month of June. In large part it's because Julio Rodriguez is taking off. He's up to .267/.317/.361 on the season and in June he's slashing .278/.350/.463, which is inline with his career stats.


The Rangers are just not getting it done in any aspect of ball, and I don't see them playing well against Logan Gilbert and a surging Mariners team.



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