Minnesota Twins(-1.5) @ Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers(-1.5)
Kansas City Royals(-1.5) @ Los Angeles Angels
MLB Best Bet Season Record: 25-29
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Minnesota Twins(-1.5) @ Toronto Blue Jays
DK +120
FD +116
This Best Bet is less about the red hot Twins and more about how bad Alek Manoah has been since the start of 2023. Last season he had 5.87 ERA over 87.1 IP and had a 1.74 WHIP. He only has one start so far in 2024 but he couldn't make it out of the 4th before needing to be yanked. Manoah has been struggling mightily and his reward is a team that has been ripping the cover off the ball.
Since April 22nd, the Twins have had the best offense in all of MLB. They're slashing .289/.350/.498 all while accruing 6.3 fWAR. Manoah is going to have a long day.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers(-1.5)
DK +136
FD +146
This bet is just classic good team vs bad team best bet. The best part of all of this is the public still think the Cardinals are good enough to not be even on the run line. The Brewers pitch, hit, run, and play defense better than the Redbirds. Also, this is not the first time I've had a best bet against Miles Mikolas and it certainly won't be my last.
The Brewers offense has been awesome and they are set to Christian Yelich back into the fold. adding him to team that's slashing .255/.335/.421 while accruing a 5.1 Baserunning fWAR should give the Brewers great odds to take the central. Shout Brice Turang for making the leap and being an amazing player. He's slashing .302/.368/.426 while having swiped 16 bases. Having a true speed threat in conjunction with the pop William Contreras and Willy Adames have is invaluable.
Kansas City Royals(-1.5) @ Los Angeles Angels
DK +116
FD +120
Simply put, Seth Lugo has been twirling the pill for 3 seasons in a row. He's thrown 8 different pitches at least 20 times this season and has great command of all of them. His 4SEAM plays so well because if you don't sit on the big hook you're going to be swinging at air. Oh and if you do sit on the curve, you might just get got by the slider or slurve. Once you've seen him a couple times you're used to the timing of his pitches, and all of a sudden the show-me change up is dropping out from under you. It's an old school approach that leaves teams without a ton of experience in a tizzy because some guys just haven't seen all of these pitches in a single game.
This is only possible because Lugo has great command. He's not quite at his peak pre-2020 where he was striking out 33.1% of batters while only walking 5.1%, but the walk rate is still 5.9%, and the 17.1 %K rate doesn't hurt as much when you trust your defense behind you. All of this has lead to a 1.74 WHIP/ 3.78 FIP/ 1.01 WHIP, with a staggering 91.3% left on base rate. That type of number is for elite relivers, not what was thought to be an innings eater. Oh and just for fun, here's Bobby Witt Jr's Baseball Savant Chart.
This is with him slashing .314/.382/.541 with 15 stolen bases. It wouldn't by hyperbole to say he's the best Royal since Carlos Beltran, and has a chance to pass George Brett as the greatest the franchise has ever seen.
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