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  • Writer's pictureMason Dalley

Best Bet 7/29/2023

The Seattle Mariners(-1.5) @ The Arizona Diamondbacks

DK +140

FD +138

BSB +135

Best Bet Season Record: 9-8

Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports

Here at Make Money with Mace, we(I) prefer being positive about a Best Bet. I like talking up awesome pitchers and team offenses that bang. I'm not a fan of going "This team is bad, this pitcher is bad, bet against them all the time" because betting on is a lot more gratifying than betting against.

I could go on again about how much I love Bryan Woo , but you already know that. The Mariners' team pitching is awesome, the team hitting the past month ranks 7th in fWAR in all of MLB and are slashing .245/.327/.438 as a team. That's really solid. It's been catalyzed by their All-Star, Julio Rodriguez, who since July 1st is slashing .280/.343/.473. When he goes the Mariners go and there seems to be a run building. They're 6-4 in their last 10, 12-8 their last 20, and 17-13 their last 30. There's consistency building and the hitting is picking up what's been a down, for the Mariners, 3.58 ERA/4.18 FIP/3.77 xFIP, month for their pitching staff. They're turning into the team that Vegas and the Computers believed they were heading into the season.

Their opponent, The Arizona Diamondbacks, have had a July to forget. They've lost the Division Lead to the Dodgers, are now jockeying with the Giants for 2nd, and are now in the middle of an insane NL Wild Card Race, where about 7 teams are competing for 3 spots. To compare their trajectory to the Mariners, the Snakes rank 15th in fWAR in all of MLB, slashing .239/.317.410 as a team. They've had a cool month for an offense that's consistently ranked top 10 in all of MLB. This drop off has been exacerbated by their pitching. Merrill Kelly has missed a handful of starts and that broke their rotation and bullpen usage. Since July 1st, the Diamondbacks have featured the worst pitching staff in all of MLB. a 5.93 ERA/5.64 FIP will do that. The Snakes are 3-7 in their last 10, 6-14 their last 20, and 11-19 their last 30. The Diamondbacks have been playing very sub-par baseball lately.

They were playing a dangerous game with their pitching staff and the team's success. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are two legitimate MLB aces and have a case to be the best pitcher on any staff they would be on in all of MLB. That's all they have for starting pitching. All season they've also had a bottom 10 Bullpen. The team pitching just hasn't been there and becoming a one legitimate starting pitcher in the rotation type of team just isn't tenable. The only reason the Red Sox are sustaining having only two starters on the roster is because the bullpen has racked up the 4th most fWAR in all of MLB and has 3.61 ERA/3.91 FIP as a unit. Oh yeah and since July 1st the Sox are slashing .299/.359/.505 as team. To sustain any success with only one or two MLB arms, you need a great bullpen and a ludicrous offense. Arizona has neither.

They're trotting out rookie Brandon Pfaadt who in 31.1 innings of work has an 8.81 ERA/7.64 FIP/ 1.63 HR/9. It's been rough for him being thrown into the fire when he clearly isn't ready. To be fair to him, he has one good pitch. His weeper has an induced BA of .205, which is good. 45% of that .205 have been at least a double. What can you do. Have a sad Baseball Savant page and bet against some de-fanged snakes.

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